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Breaking Through – Making Top 9 at GP Gothenburg

The last two weeks have been kind of crazy for me, with a lot of bad beats and a few good ones to balance things out, but as I have found out, even the good ones come with a side of bad. Nationals had ended and I was feeling much better than I had been the week prior. What had kept me from playtesting seemed to be passing and I was fortunate enough to walk away with a 14th place finish despite a lack of preparation.

I left Minneapolis for Denver where I would be staying a day a half before leaving for Europe and another 3 week trip. I was excited, but still needed to finish fully recovering in order to be able to enjoy it to its fullest. Of course, as fate would have it, the night before we left, I had to head to the emergency room with a breakout of Shingles on my eye. Yes Shingles, and yes, gross.

This would have been bad enough except my lack of insurance was bound to make it sting even more. Still, things would be fixed over and the upcoming trip was worth looking forward to as a pick-me-up. As I pulled into the parking space of the emergency room though, another dagger caught me by surprise; my rear axle fell off.

My car had had issues before and I was waiting until after my trip to Europe to have them resolved but a needed trip to the E.R. meant I had to drive my car, and it didn’t appreciate that. 200 dollars in prescriptions and a tow later and things were back to being focused on the GP and PT to get my mind off the looming problems, at least temporarily.

The morning of our flight, we discover that the plane leaving Denver for Detroit is late and we will miss our connecting flight so we research some options and decide to take a plane leaving 1 hour before our planned flight, routing through Minneapolis. Things looked on the up and up as we landed in Minnesota and made our way to the second leg of our trip. Checked in. Boarded. Good to go. But the beats just kept coming.

As we backed out of the gate, the tow bar attached to the plane snapped, puncturing the tire. This called for us to pull back into the gate and get the plane fixed before leaving. An inconvenience but only a mild one as we would be out of the situation in 45 minutes or so. As scheduled, we backed out a second time, and as scheduled, something went wrong.

This time, some pin in the wheel mount fell out and caused us to once again pull the plane back into the gate and get it worked on. The plane was jacked up and examined for 2 hours before they decided that it was not fit for the sky. Instead, they would pull a different plane out of the work bay that needed a little bit of work first and we would use that one. For our inconvenience though, we were awarded 6 dollars at the McDonald’s in the airport. WORTH IT!

An hour or so later we made it into the air and arrived in Amsterdam where would we need to figure out a new transfer to get to Sweden. But, as we all know, when it rains it pours, so it would only make sense that my bag was lost by the airline. Luckily, the airline gave me a pair of way too small socks and a comb because those are the essentials after all.

We managed to avoid any other malfunctions and got into Sweden just fine, minus 3 quarters of my stuff of course. Limited Grand Prixs are always a little less tense than traditional Gps as you just have no idea what you are going to be working with until you sit down for that player meeting. It is here where most of the big variance occurs, although I am definitely not in the camp that claims you need to have the sweetest pool ever to make day 2. In Tampa, my pool was fine, although hardly the nuts, and I managed a 9-0 day 1, so while the help is appreciated when a good pool does come, giving up before ever playing when you get a bad one is just not my style.

That said, I may have opened one of the worst sealed pools I have ever opened. I was planning on grinding regardless, but would not be surprised if I ended up 6-3 or whatever despite the 3 byes that would have to carry me if I had any chance at all. For reference, here is my pool, my deck, and the deck I sideboarded into all but one of the rounds.

The Pool

Artifact

 

White

 

Blue

 

Black

 

Red

 

Green

 

Maindeck

 

 

Sideboard Deck
[deck]

 

I had to consult some friends like LSV to get the courage to sideboard into the second deck, as its total lack of removal scared me, but it was a nice surprise in game 2 situations when my opponents put me on the play, since I could just get ’em. I had the deck laid out as an option for the maindeck but could not bring myself to run it. Neither deck was very good, but the white one did offer a higher chance of being able to curve out on people. I started the blue squad just because it came with removal and counterspells and I was afraid of the bombs I would encounter. [card]Ice Cage[/card] is not as good in sealed as draft, but it performed fine for me, probably more out of luck than actual card quality.. Still, the white was a better deck so I should have started it despite it having no removal of any kind.

I had considered red, as it has the most powerful cards in a vacuum, but my pool had zero ways to splash something and the red was both shallow and lacking guys to actually attack with. Pyroclasm could potentially steal some games, but the ways to close after resolving it were nonexistent and it actually hurt my own squad quite a bit beyond the top of the curve guys.

So I end up with this very below average pool and naturally ran into all the cards in the format that you would think to be scared of: Mind Control, Fireball, Grave Titan, Garruk Wildspeaker, Sword of Vengeance, Day of Judgment, and Overwhelming Stampede, yet all of those cards seemed to show up at the worst time for my opponents. I mean, you are never sad to see your Fireball, but when you already have Grave Titan in play and have resolved 2 Mind Controls, it is probably overkill. My opponent would win that game comfortably and proceed to see none of those cards in the other 2 games. This small combination of bad luck for the opponent, moderately good luck on my part, and what I would consider good play, some how lead to an 8 and 1 finish on the day.

I was just as surprised as anyone who saw my deck at the end result and I am certainly not one to be shy about my own skills or play ability. Sometimes the cards just aren’t there for you to work with. Sometimes this is true but you get there anyway. Regardless of the reason, I was happy with my day 1 results and day 2 would start out even better.

In a format where so many people have so many preferences regarding color and archetype, I find it best to just go with the flow and take what is coming. Sometimes this is made easier by a bomb rare in your first pack that happens to not be blue or white in this case, as those are the only colors that may be clogged up regardless. In this instance, a Garruk Wildspeaker was found staring back at me. I am a fan of green in this format as is, so taking such a powerful card would lead to good things.

By the end of the draft, I had an insane G/B deck with Overwhelming Stampede, Garruk, Protean Hydra, 2 Doom Blades, 2 Quag Sickness, Corrupt, and a bunch of awesome filler like Sylvan Rangers, Yavimaya Wurms, and Reassembling Skeleton. I did have one mispick though, right after Garruk. I was faced with a Corrupt versus Assassinate pick, and went with the weaker of the two removal spells as I figured green would be able to splash it regardless. The power difference between the two cards should have corrected me and had me end up with a second Corrupt, but I would definitely learn from that pick for the future.

I managed a pretty smooth 3-0 finish for that draft despite facing off against similarly disgusting decks. One even featured an [card]Inferno Titan[/card] that came down on turn 4 or 5 all 3 of our games. Despite this, it was off to the final draft with a loss or so to spare.

I opened Mind Control and without thinking about it much, snapped it up. The rare was inconsequential and there was really no decision here. I ended up with a pretty weak second pick as my choice was between Child of Night and White Knight. Both colors are fine to pair with Blue, so I just took the more powerful of the two in the Knight. As fate would have it, I would end up in Black over White anyway and could have used the Child, but oh well.

I cemented myself pretty strongly in Blue and Black with some picks like Quag Sickness and Azure Drake, which made my open in pack 2 that much more awkward. I had to ship a Garruk Wildspeaker in favor of an Azure Drake. I debated moving into Green, but it seemed too greedy. So after tanking, I just stayed on color and gave Sam Black a nice gift. Luckily I was shipped a second pick Mind Control in pack 2 that made up for my “lost” first pick.

The deck solidified with a 3rd pack, 1st pick Sword of Vengeance into Doom Blade and some much needed filler like Augury Owl. I never saw a Foresee or Jace’s Ingenuity, which was definitely the biggest weakness of the final build, but the deck seemed solid enough to get me into the Top 8.

I had to face off against Sam Black in the first round who got me with his double Garruk deck courtesy in part to me. I played pretty poorly overall during this match, and I am not sure why exactly. While recapping the game, I was able to recognize the correct lines pretty easily, but I think I just played too fast during the actual games and kept coming up with the second best line. This is probably my biggest weakness as a player right now and is something I have been working on but still needs improvement.

Basically, the speed at which I play will occasionally catch up to me in a bad way. There are always times to tank and I seem to not want to tank long enough to come out with the best possible line. I run through every scenario and line just fine, but hurry myself along before settling on the best one. This is just the result of bad habits dying hard, but I have been trying some breathing exercises among other things that will hopefully begin to erase this problem.

Meanwhile, there was still Magic to be had. I was squared off against Raphael Levy during the next round and was able to pull that one out without much resistance. He unfortunately had to mulligan more than I did and I always seemed to have a Mind Control at the ready when he looked to be recovering from a slow start.

Now the interesting part began. That win left me at 12-2 with a single round left. The big question at this point, is whether or not to draw. I had some friends look over the standings sheet, as did I, and things looked pretty good. At the time, 4 of the 5 X-2-1s would make the top 8 and I was sitting with the 2nd or 3rd best breakers. Things got even more interesting when I found out I was paired up.

My opponent did not quite understand the situation at hand though. Obviously he has the power to scoop me in, or to play it out in hopes of beating me. He was interested in getting a friend into the top 8, so these 2 lines really were the only choices. I tried to explain this to him when he offered the draw, as he was essentially leaving the outcome to fate when in reality he had almost full control over it. Either he was OK with me top 8ing, or he wasn’t and would try to beat me. After a few minutes of failed explanation, I took the draw as it seemed to be between 70-80% in my favor to top 8, where as playing probably was not that high.

I sat and waited for the top 8 announcement. They got to 6th place and announced that 3 of the 5 12-2-1s would make it in. I cringed but still felt fine. 6Th, not me, 7th not me, 8th…. not me. “And in 9th place, Conley Woods.” A crowd had amassed around me with a judge in its core for what I assumed was an inevitable reaction if I was announced in but instead, within 3 seconds of being announced 9th, the judge stepped forward.

“I need to ask you to move, we are having a draft here. You can’t stay.” Really? Dagger much? Oh well. I was visibly bummed out. It wasn’t 9th place that stung so bad, since if I had been fighting my way back from the bottom all day, I would have been fine with coming up a little short on breakers. Rather, it was the fact that I had control of my own fate and gave up that control with crossed fingers. I had gotten a virtual top 8 at my first ever Grand Prix in Dallas 2007 and it definitely felt a lot better than this one did.

Lesson learned though.

And then there was still a Pro Tour the following week! I knew the week would have some testing involved as no one on the crew was sure of what they would be playing. Luckily, I was flying out early Monday morning so I would have as much time as possible in Amsterdam to meet up with people and run some games. But the daggers were not done being thrown.

My flight was at 6:30 am Monday, which would be rough in a familiar city with transport at the whim, but making such a flight is even more difficult when your cab doesn’t show up and your running a little behind already. This resulted in a missed flight of course. We waited in a line for literally 4 hours to rebook our tickets. They had no sympathy towards us and basically said we wasted 300 bucks and had to get new tickets, currently at a price of $1300 for 2 one way tickets (myself and Sara). 500 miles, 1300 bucks; No thank you.

I checked out Expedia and managed to find 2 tickets out the next morning for 600, which was still not even close to the realm of reasonable, but was the best we could do, as train tickets were just as expensive and we would need to cab there for an extra fee. We spent the night in the airport which was an adventure within itself and finally got to Amsterdam the next day around 4pm. So much for that extra day of testing!

But that seems to be a good stopping point for now. Next week should have 2 whole parts dedicated to the Pro Tour which was most certainly a tale of 2 halves for me. Until then, thanks for reading!

Conley Woods

22 thoughts on “Breaking Through – Making Top 9 at GP Gothenburg”

  1. Wow after looking at each color in that sealed pool I wanted to vomit. Worst M11 pool I’ve ever seen. Good job stealing success with it, you deserve it.

  2. That sealed was pretty bad, but it could have been worse. You had reasonable fat plus Whispersilk Cloak, which can always randomly win you games. Obviously not the same stage, but I’ve drawn myself out of PTQ top 8s a couple times, so I feel your pain.

  3. so, two pts in a row you are scrambling to test in the host city mere hours before the event? and we’re supposed to take you seriously as a ‘professional’ player?

  4. @meh What are you even trying to say? The fact that he does so well even when he gets shafted by circumstance would make most people respect him even more as a pro player.

    Not everyone is such a jealous, cynical little kid as you are.

    Anyway: Keep it up, Conley. I know the string of “almost-there” finishes must hurt, and I’m sure you’ve heard this from everyone and it’s probably stale, but you did really well in all of these events (nats, GP goth and ptams) even if you didn’t top 8. Intentionally drawing yourself out of the top 8 is just one of those things that happens (like shitty public transport and car troubles), it’s like you said – this way have you a 70-80% shot, by playing it out you really can’t be sure (guy almost definitely had a better deck than you). Statistically, you made the right call.

    Shingles on your eye really does suck though…

  5. this is good writing, i really enjoy the journal style articles with simplified/expediated deck building/game reports.
    Kudos, Conley!

  6. Regarding the 70-80% shot at making top 8 by drawing with Sami Häggkvist:

    Stadings before the last round
    1 Häggkvist, Sami [FIN] 39 75.8598%
    2 Black, Samuel H [USA] 39 74.8918%
    3 Herzog, Nicolai [NOR] 39 69.7511%
    4 Oberg, Kenny [SWE] 36 73.3433%
    5 Abe, Allison N [BRA] 36 71.0498%
    6 Jonsson, Anton [SWE] 36 70.4212%
    7 Woods, Conley L [USA] 36 68.3770%
    8 Watsfeldt, Elias [SWE] 36 66.9963%
    9 Lybaert, Marijn [BEL] 36 65.6944%
    10 Calcano, Christian [USA] 36 65.3391%
    11 Rikola, Markku [FIN] 35 68.5185%
    12 Lund, Kim [NOR] 34 66.1547%

    Last round pairings:
    1 Häggkvist, Sami [FIN] 39 vs. Woods, Conley L [USA] 36
    2 Herzog, Nicolai [NOR] 39 vs. Black, Samuel H [USA] 39
    3 Jonsson, Anton [SWE] 36 vs. Watsfeldt, Elias [SWE] 36
    4 Abe, Allison N [BRA] 36 vs. Oberg, Kenny [SWE] 36
    5 Lybaert, Marijn [BEL] 36 vs. Calcano, Christian [USA]36
    6 Rikola, Markku [FIN] 35 vs. Snepvangers, Bram [NLD] 33
    7 Lund, Kim [NOR] 34 vs. Levy, Raphael [FRA] 33

    We can ignore table 7 because of Kim Lund’s low tiebreakers. Black, Herzog and Häggkvist are in at 39 points each.
    It doesn’t matter whether Jonsson and Watsfeldt draw or play; one of them will end above you and the other will end below you if you draw.
    We can expect Abe and Öberg to draw; that puts them in top 8 unless you play and win AND Rikola wins. From their perspective, that’s two mathces that have to go wrong (and you have to choose not to draw).
    Lybaert and Calcano will play since they have the lowest OMW of all players with 36 points. So, if Abe and Öberg draw, which seems reasonable, we have seven players above you if you draw:
    Black
    Herzog
    Häggkvist
    Jonsson/Watsfeldt
    Abe
    Öberg
    Lybaert/Calcano

    And in that case you make top 8 only if Rikola doesn’t win.

    So by taking a draw you make top 8 if:
    1. Rikola doesn’t win.
    or
    2. Abe and Öberg play.

    (or if Calcano and Lybaert go to time and draw unintentionally).
    It seems rather unlikely that 2. happens. They both have a better justification for drawing than you do. (Even though you were paired up, you won’t close the 2% gap in OMW to the players above you).
    While it makes no sense that Watsfeldt draws (if he wants to make top 8), it is irrelevant.

    I understand that one has to make this decision within a limited amount of time and that there may be scenarios that I haven’t considered. But I don’t see how a draw gave a 70-80% chance of making the top 8.

  7. lol
    I looked at the sealed pool and said to myself “This looks like most sealed pools I pick up.” Shows you what type of luck I have with my pools. (Mind you I don’t have Conely’s playskill to do what he did with his)

  8. That sealed pool looks better than all the sealed pools I’ve opened so far. I guess thats why I stopped playing them after 3 in a row like that.

  9. You opened water elemental. How could you lose.

    All jokes aside Colney you’re a master, if I did as well as you at Nats and Amsterdam I would be damn pleased with myself. Keep up the good work and your day will come.

  10. Yeah, I also didn’t get how you expect to have a 70-80% shot if you draw in that situation. Solid article though.

  11. Wow woods, out of all the yugioh events i have ever gone to, i have NEVER had that much bad luck as you did with your traveling etc. I feel really bad for you, and like srsly, some higher power really hates you.

  12. Sealed is just fucking stupid, I’m really sick of it. The pool you have is pretty much the epitome of everything I’ve ever opened. There’s simply no reason for sealed to be a real format.

  13. Hannes: He went 12-2-1 and didn’t make T8 on tiebreakers. “T9” highlights the dagger of the ninth place finish, as well as underscores the success that is necessary for even this seeming failure. And so on, and so forth. If you don’t get it right away, I doubt I can explain it.

  14. It’s unfortunate that people try to draw in instead of choosing to play. Do pro sports ever see teams throwing games to adjust who makes the play offs etc? Why do we accept this in Magic? It hurts the game. It would be easy for judges to keep an eye on the top tables to enforce play. Not posting standings would be an easy fix as well.

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  16. Eske put it down very well, by drawing you put your shot at t8 in the hands of Bram Snepvangers instead of your own. If the decision to draw was right or wrong I can’t tell, but I can tell that the probability to t8 is no way near the 70-80% that you suggest.

    The rest of the article was fine though.

    As a sidenote I am pretty sure that Elias Watsfeldt intentionally drew himself out of t8 but in to t16. With a loss he would have ended up at 18th place. Though that doesn’t disturb your t8 calculations.

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