What’s the EV of the New MTG Arena Events?

In an announcement on April 2, the new MTG Arena premier play system was unveiled, along with adjustments to the rewards of Constructed and Traditional Draft events. Today, I will analyze the expected value of the various new events, determine the win rates you need to “go infinite”, and offer recommendations on how to best engage with the new premier play system.




The key results, based on a mathematical model whose assumptions and calculations are explained throughout and particularly at the end of this article, are…

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